What if Artificial Intelligence Is Just a “Normal” Technology?
By The Economist | Published September 4, 2025
Artificial intelligence (AI) often inspires polarized opinions. On one side, optimists foresee AI sparking runaway economic growth, revolutionizing scientific discovery, and even extending human life indefinitely. On the other, pessimists warn of mass unemployment, social upheaval, and the existential risk of autonomous AI systems running amok.
However, a recent paper from Princeton University researchers Arvind Narayanan and Sayash Kapoor challenges these extremes by presenting a more measured view. Their work treats AI as a “normal technology,” a perspective gaining attention amid ongoing debates among AI researchers and economists.
AI as a “Normal” Technology
Rather than depicting AI as an unprecedented force destined to either elevate or doom humanity, Narayanan and Kapoor suggest that AI’s trajectory might closely mirror the patterns seen in previous technological revolutions. This means gradual adoption, iterative integration, and a mix of positive and disruptive outcomes distributed over many years or even decades.
By framing AI within this historical continuum, the researchers encourage policymakers, businesses, and the public to set expectations that are less about dramatic leaps or catastrophic collapses and more about steady transformation. Such a framework promotes a focus on managing incremental change, fostering innovation, and mitigating disruptions as they arise.
Historical Parallels and Economic Implications
Historical technological advances like the steam engine, electricity, and the internet followed complex paths, combining rapid innovation phases with periods of adaptation and societal adjustment. AI’s impact on labor markets, economic productivity, and social structures is likely to evolve through similar stages.
Narayanan and Kapoor’s approach underscores the importance of studying AI’s real-world effects with empirical evidence, resisting the urge to succumb to hype or fear. By doing so, stakeholders are better equipped to harness AI’s benefits without neglecting challenges such as job displacement or ethical considerations.
The Broader Context
The debate about AI’s role comes at a time when the world faces multiple intersecting crises—from geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine to global climate change and shifting economic dynamics. Amid these pressing issues, treating AI as a “normal” technology can provide a stabilizing perspective, helping integrate AI developments into broader policy and economic planning.
Businesses and governments worldwide continue to invest heavily in artificial intelligence, seeking competitive edges and solutions to complex problems. Yet, this research invites more cautious optimism and measured strategy rather than fantastical projections or alarmist scenarios.
Conclusion
AI undoubtedly represents a transformative innovation, but maybe it is not fundamentally different from past technologies that reshaped society gradually over time. Recognizing AI as a “normal technology” can help temper expectations, focus attention on realistic outcomes, and guide thoughtful preparation for the changes ahead.
As the discourse around artificial intelligence matures, embracing this perspective could lead to more balanced policies and public understanding—enabling humanity to reap AI’s rewards while responsibly managing its risks.
This article appeared in the Finance & Economics section of The Economist’s print edition under the headline “Normal People.”
