The ongoing partial shutdown of the U.S. federal government is causing delays in the anticipated announcement of the 2026 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), leaving millions of beneficiaries uncertain about their upcoming benefit increases. This disruption stems from a political deadlock in Congress over government funding, which has led to a halt in the collection and publication of critical economic data, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures essential for calculating Social Security adjustments.
Each year, the Social Security Administration bases its COLA on changes in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) from the third quarter of the previous year to the third quarter of the current year. Typically, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases the September CPI data by mid-October, allowing prompt and transparent calculation of benefit increases scheduled for the following year.
However, with the government partially shut down, the BLS suspended its data processing—the September CPI report, usually published by October 15, is now delayed. Even if lawmakers resolve the funding impasse quickly, the backlog in data analysis likely means the COLA figures will be announced weeks later than usual. This postponement impacts not only retired Americans relying on Social Security but also disabled individuals, widows, widowers, and dependent children who receive Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits.
In 2025, over 72.5 million beneficiaries received a 2.5% COLA increase. Senior advocacy groups like the Senior Citizens League had projected a 2.7% increase for 2026, which would have raised average monthly benefits by approximately $54 to $2,062. Inflation remains a significant factor in these adjustments; recent surges in consumer prices, influenced by tariffs and ongoing economic pressures, suggest that inflationary trends may continue upward, affecting future benefit calculations.
The delay in the COLA announcement leaves many households in limbo as they plan their finances for the coming year. The government shutdown’s ripple effects extend far beyond temporary pauses in services, directly influencing the financial well-being of some of the nation’s most vulnerable populations. Until the federal government reopens and data collection resumes, Social Security recipients face uncertainty about their 2026 cost-of-living adjustments.
