As the 2025 college football season kicks off, Boise State football finds itself at a critical juncture. With playoff ambitions still burning bright, the Broncos face the challenge of defending their Mountain West title while adapting to significant roster changes. Can Boise State secure a seventh conference championship and position itself once again as a contender for the College Football Playoff (CFP)? Let’s break down the outlook for the Broncos in what could be a landmark season.
Riding High but Facing New Challenges
Boise State enters the season as the clear favorite to win the Mountain West Conference. Having claimed back-to-back conference championships in 2023 and 2024, the Broncos are eyeing a rare three-peat—a feat never before accomplished in their Mountain West history.
However, the path forward is not without hurdles. The Broncos lost star running back Ashton Jeanty, a first-round NFL draft pick who rushed for an astonishing 2,601 yards last year. Replacing that kind of production is no small task. Redshirt junior quarterback Maddux Madsen returns, bringing experience and improved poise from fall camp, but much will depend on his ability to expand the Broncos’ vertical passing game to compensate for the drop in rushing yards.
The Offensive Transition
Madsen’s 2024 campaign was marked by heavy reliance on short and intermediate routes, particularly exploiting defenses keyed on Jeanty. Only 12.8% of his throws were for 20 or more yards, a trend he needs to reverse to stretch opposing secondaries and create explosive plays. Behind a seasoned offensive line, Madsen is poised to pass for another 3,000 yards, but the overall offensive balance will hinge on the development of the running back corps.
Sire Gaines, a promising but injury-prone redshirt freshman, along with sixth-year transfer Malik Sherrod, are tasked with filling the void left by Jeanty. While both runners show potential—the latter posted nearly 1,000 rushing yards at Fresno State in 2023—they face an uphill battle in replacing Jeanty’s consistent big-play threat and leadership in clutch moments.
Mountain West Competition and Season Outlook
The Mountain West landscape remains competitive but lacks a clear disruptor to Boise State’s dominance. UNLV, the Broncos’ primary challenger in recent years, has undergone massive roster turnover following coach Barry Odom’s departure and Dan Mullen’s arrival. The Rebels’ reliance on a patchwork of transfers will require time to gel, making them a less immediate threat despite their potential.
San Jose State and Fresno State emerge as dark-horse candidates. San Jose State, despite losing their top receiver Nick Nash, benefit from a favorable schedule that avoids facing Boise State and UNLV. Fresno State, aiming to bounce back, always plays spoiler against the Broncos, evidenced by their last two victories over Boise State.
Boise State’s toughness will be tested early on with challenging road games at South Florida to open the season and Air Force to start Mountain West play. Yet, the Broncos enjoy a relatively straightforward conference slate overall, with difficult opponents visiting Albertsons Stadium.
Playoff Aspirations: What Will It Take?
A strong start with a victory at South Florida would set a confident tone and bolster Boise State’s profile nationally. The Broncos face their toughest test outside the conference on October 4th against Notre Dame, a game that, if lost, won’t drastically hurt their playoff chances provided it is their only defeat.
Boise State can realistically aim for a 10-2 regular-season record, with an unbeaten conference run ideally leading them into the Mountain West title game. Winning this championship game would be the golden ticket for conjecturing a College Football Playoff berth as the top Group of Five representative.
While other Group of Five contenders like the American Athletic Conference’s champion have been formidable in recent years, Boise State’s consistent dominance and quality wins could give them the edge in committee rankings.
Looking Ahead as the Mountain West Era Winds Down
The 2025 season carries extra significance as the Mountain West Conference prepares for substantial realignment, with Boise State set to join the reimagined Pac-12 in 2026. This looming change adds extra motivation for the Broncos to leave a lasting legacy in their current league.
Athletic Director Jeramiah Dickey openly champions the future move to a Power Five conference affiliated with the new Pac-12. Yet, all eyes remain fixed on the present as Boise State seeks to cap off its Mountain West tenure with another championship and make a national statement with a playoff push.
Conclusion
Boise State football faces a season of both opportunity and transition. Losing a player like Ashton Jeanty creates voids to fill, but a veteran quarterback, a strong offensive line, and a talented roster provide a foundation to sustain success. The Mountain West may not have become more difficult, but the Broncos cannot afford to be complacent.
With the eyes of fans and pundits watching, Boise State has the pieces to once again capture Mountain West supremacy and stake a legitimate claim for a College Football Playoff spot. As the Broncos gear up for the season, one question remains: Will 2025 be the year they finish the Mountain West chapter with a crowning glory before stepping into new challenges on the Power Five stage? Only time will tell—but the journey promises to be thrilling.
