ASPI’s Critical Technology Tracker 2025 Update: Expanding Scope with 10 New Technologies and Fresh Insights
1 December 2025
By Jenny Wong-Leung, Stephan Robin, and Linus Cohen
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) Staff
The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) has released the 2025 update of its Critical Technology Tracker, providing an enhanced and up-to-date assessment of global research dynamics across 74 key technologies. This expansion includes 10 newly added technologies identified after extensive consultation with Australia’s critical technology strategies and allied nations, offering policymakers and industry stakeholders a comprehensive overview of the ongoing technological race for strategic advantage.
Expanding the Horizon: 10 New Technologies Added
The Critical Technology Tracker has broadened its analytical lens by incorporating 10 new, strategically significant technologies into its dataset. These include advanced computing and communication sectors such as cloud and edge computing, generative artificial intelligence (AI), and novel neurotechnologies like brain-computer interfaces (BCIs), which enable direct communication between humans and machines. This expanded dataset has been thoroughly refreshed to ensure accuracy and comparability, now encompassing over 7.7 million unique research publications between 2005 and 2025. Importantly, the tracker measures not just the quantity but the impact of research output by focusing on the top 10 percent most-cited papers, using performance over the five years from 2020 to 2024 as a predictor of future science and technology capabilities.
China’s Growing Dominance Amidst Emerging Tech Monopolies
The updated tracker paints a stark global picture: China’s ascendancy in high-impact research continues unabated, with Beijing leading in 66 of the 74 technologies studied. In eight of the ten newly added fields, China holds a clear global lead, dominating especially in cloud and edge computing, computer vision, generative AI, and grid integration technologies—areas flagged for high Technology Monopoly Risk (TMR) due to concentrated expertise within Chinese institutions.
Historically, many of these fields commenced the century with a predominant U.S. lead in research output. However, sustained Chinese investment in fundamental research has not only erased this lead but established China as the global frontrunner in these technologies, underscoring the urgent need for trusted international partners to collaborate in order to balance global research ecosystems and mitigate concentration risks.
United States and Allies: Retaining Leadership in Select Domains
While China leads widely, the United States retains leadership in eight technologies, including neuroprosthetics and geoengineering. Neuroprosthetics is particularly notable as the only technology tracked without a top-10 Chinese research institution presence, with the seven leading institutions based in the U.S. The U.S. has recently lost its lead in small satellites to China, signaling shifting ground even in previously dominant areas.
The tracker also highlights progress among allied and partner nations:
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Australia ranks in the global top five for research effort in seven technologies, with a marked presence in geoengineering through the University of Tasmania (4th worldwide) and in neuroprosthetics via the University of Melbourne (8th). However, Australia has lost recent top-five rankings in critical minerals processing, electric batteries, and advanced protection technologies.
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European Union (EU) countries continue to challenge the U.S.-China duopoly, leading in four technologies. Germany is a powerhouse, ranking in the global top five in 30 technologies (up from 24 previously). Italy and France continue to bolster Europe’s contributions.
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United Kingdom shows notable progress, increasing the number of technologies it ranks in the top five for by four, now holding a top-five position in 48 technologies, up from 36. – South Korea has surged impressively, now ranking in the top five for 32 technologies, including five of the new additions, and surpassing the U.S. in hydrogen and ammonia power research.
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India is gaining ground rapidly, climbing to a top-five rank in 50 technologies, surpassing the U.S. in five.
Other countries of note include Iran, maintaining top-five status in eight technologies; Saudi Arabia, improving its ranking with notable institutional progress; and Singapore, where Nanyang Technological University leads globally in extended reality and features prominently across 14 technologies.
Institutional Leaders and Talent Flow
The Chinese Academy of Sciences remains the world’s preeminent research institution, leading in 31 technologies, though it has ceded leadership in quantum sensors and novel antibiotics/antivirals to other Chinese universities. Beijing’s Tsinghua University holds first place in five technologies.
Within Europe, the Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres and TU Delft (Netherlands) each appear in the global top 10 for five technologies. TU Delft uniquely leads in high-impact quantum computing research.
In the U.S., the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) is a top performer, ranked in the top 10 for 10 technologies.
Using Open Researcher and Contributor ID (ORCID) profiles, ASPI also introduced its Talent Tracker analytics, revealing flows of elite researchers behind the top 1 percent and 10 percent of highly cited publications. The U.S. remains the leading employer of top-tier technological talent, followed closely by China and European countries collectively. The UK ranks fourth as a key hub of employment for leading researchers.
Spotlight on Brain-Computer Interfaces and Emerging Regulatory Advances
Among the new technologies is brain-computer interfaces (BCIs), which hold promise to revolutionize human-machine collaboration by translating brain signals directly into commands. The commercial market for BCIs could emerge as early as 2030. Three companies dominate this field: Synchron (Australia), and Blackrock Neurotech and Neuralink (both in the U.S.). All have received the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s Breakthrough Device designation—a status that accelerates regulatory review and development—marking critical progress toward bringing BCIs into mainstream application.
Complementary Insights from ASPI’s China Defence Universities Tracker
ASPI’s newly updated China Defence Universities Tracker supplements the Tech Tracker by mapping the alignment between China’s global research dominance and its civil-military fusion system. These complementary tools reveal how China leverages its research strengths in conjunction with defence university networks to advance strategic technologies.
Looking Ahead
The Critical Technology Tracker 2025 update provides essential data and insights into global competition in critical technologies, highlighting the shifting landscape of technological leadership and strategic research investment. Future updates, planned for early 2026, will further refine datasets and extend two-decade trend analyses that currently illustrate the expanding shares of China and India amidst relative declines in U.S., EU, and UK research shares.
For policymakers, industry leaders, and allied partners, these findings emphasize the urgency of collaborative strategies to harness comparative advantages, diversify research ecosystems, and influence the trajectory of emerging technologies crucial to national and global security.
For more information, access to datasets, or to subscribe to ASPI’s analytical series, visit the ASPI Strategist website.
