Technology, Not Geography, Will Grant Global Power in the 21st Century
By Frank A. Rose | August 4, 2025
Lighthouse view of Kihnu island, Baltic Sea, off Estonia’s coast (Photo: Alessandro Rampazzo/AFP via Getty Images)
In January 1904, Sir Halford Mackinder, the British geographer and strategist, addressed the Royal Geographical Society in London with a seminal paper titled, “The Geographic Pivot of History.” Mackinder famously proposed that control over the Eurasian heartland—the vast “pivot area” spanning the continent—would determine global dominance. This insight profoundly shaped modern geopolitical thought, from British imperial policy to Cold War era containment strategies.
Mackinder’s thesis was straightforward yet impactful: geography shapes destiny. Railroads, industrial innovation, and large-scale military logistics were transforming power balances, and the immense resources and strategic position of Eurasia made it the ultimate prize for any global power.
The Changing Landscape: From Geography to Technology
More than a century later, while geography still informs strategic realities, it is no longer the sole or even dominant factor in global power competition. The 21st-century contest is increasingly driven by technological capabilities. Technology now acts as a critical complement, often outweighing geographic advantage in shaping national power, security, and influence.
The new “pivot of history” is evolving—not a physical region but a constellation of emerging technologies redefining the global balance. In essence, the 21st century’s strategic arenas are frontiers of artificial intelligence (AI), quantum computing, semiconductors, outer space access, undersea data cables, and biotechnology.
Frank Rose, reflecting on the enduring relevance of Mackinder’s thinking and drawing from insights by Hal Brands of Johns Hopkins SAIS, ponders what Mackinder would say if alive today. Rather than fixating on geography alone, the focus would likely shift to technological dominance.
Technologies Shaping Global Power
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Artificial Intelligence: Already transforming warfare, intelligence gathering, logistics, and decision-making, AI promises unprecedented military and economic advantages. Leaders in AI development will control autonomous systems, electronic warfare, cyber defenses, and space operations. Russian President Vladimir Putin has acknowledged the stakes, stating, “whoever dominates the development of AI will rule the world.”
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Quantum Computing: With the potential to break existing encryption, quantum technologies could revolutionize data security, simulations, and analytics—critical areas for military and economic power.
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Biotechnology: Advances in biotech will reshape healthcare, agriculture, and human performance enhancements, yielding strategic advantages.
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Semiconductors: The backbone of virtually all modern technologies, maintaining semiconductor supply chains and innovation is essential.
The United States and China: A High-Tech Rivalry
Today’s most intense strategic competition exemplifies this tech-centric contest: the U.S. versus China. Beijing has prioritized technological supremacy through initiatives like “Made in China 2025,” channeling vast resources into scientific research, technological development, and control over critical supply chains.
The U.S. once led globally thanks to a unique ecosystem combining federal research and development, world-class universities, and a vibrant private sector. Programs from the Manhattan Project to Cold War-era innovation exemplify this partnership’s strength. However, this ecosystem faces challenges:
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Stagnant Research Funding: Federal investment in foundational science and engineering has not kept pace.
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Political Strains on Academia: Cultural and political conflicts, including contentious debates over university policies and funding, threaten collaboration and innovation.
Meanwhile, China aggressively advances STEM education, high-tech manufacturing, and infrastructure control—undersea cables, satellite networks, 5G systems—with direct geopolitical and military implications.
Reimagining Mackinder: Questions for Today’s World
Rose argues modern geopolitics must update Mackinder’s approach, asking not just “Who controls Eurasia?” but:
- Who controls the semiconductor supply chain?
- Who leads in quantum research?
- Who sets global standards on AI ethics and cybersecurity?
These questions will determine the future distribution of global power.
Recommended U.S. Strategic Actions
To compete and lead in this new environment, Frank Rose urges several key measures:
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Reinvest in Basic Scientific Research: Significantly increase funding for federal R&D, with emphasis on university-led foundational science and engineering.
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Revitalize the Federal-University Partnership: Rebuild trust between government and academia by avoiding divisive culture wars, while universities recommit to free inquiry and national service.
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Strengthen Public-Private Collaboration: Expand and institutionalize programs like the Defense Innovation Unit and DARPA, and reform acquisition processes to rapidly deploy new technologies.
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Safeguard Critical Supply Chains: Reduce reliance on adversarial countries for rare earth minerals, semiconductors, and other key inputs through “friend-shoring” and secure innovation networks.
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Lead in Setting Global Norms: Work with democratic allies to establish international rules guiding AI, biotechnology, and cyber technologies, reflecting shared values.
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Promote Legal Immigration Pathways: Sustain and enhance immigration policies that attract top scientific and technical talent, recognizing immigrants’ historic contributions to U.S. technological leadership.
Conclusion: Winning the Race for Ideas
Frank Rose closes by recognizing that in this century, global power depends not on reclaiming terrain but on mastering the race for ideas and innovation. The new “pivot area” is not geographic but technological—a dynamic zone demanding continuous cultivation and defense.
The future balance of power will hinge on who best harnesses transformative technologies, secures critical infrastructure, and leads the international community in ethical innovation. As the geopolitical arena evolves, understanding this shift is vital for policymakers and citizens alike.
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